Walking the Plank: Looking at Liriano

Saturday, 22 December 2012 00:51

Written by Michael Sanserino

The Pirates made a big splash Friday morning by agreeing to terms with left-handed pitcher Francisco Liriano -- a name that certainly resonates for baseball fans. His 2006 season was special, especially since it came in concert with a Cy Young performance from Johan Santana. 

Elbow trouble cut that season short, and Liriano has not been the same pitcher since. But that does not make this signing (which should be official shortly after Christmas) a bad one. At just shy of $13 million, Liriano's contract is a big one for the Pirates but pretty average for a left-handed starter in the league. There are pros and cons to this signing. Let's take a look at a few. 

The Pros

- Liriano adds veteran depth to the rotation, and a left-handed arm to go with it. 

- His strikeout numbers have held fairly steady over the past five years (~8.5 SO/9), and his strikeout percentage has remained consistent. 

- He has pitched more than 130 innings in each of the past four seasons. 

- His ERA should drop in moving to the National League. How much is TBD. 

- His FIP and xFIP (as measured by Fangraphs) indicate he is a better pitcher than his ERA would suggest.

- His 2012 WAR (according to Fangraphs) was better (1.8) than Jeff Karstens (1.7), Erik Bedard (1.3) and Kevin Correia (0.9).

- His slider had more movement in 2012 than 2011. 

The Cons

- Liriano's 4.40 ERA is skewed by two low outliers -- 2006 and 2010. Every other year he has been well below average. 

- His command has been a big issue. He has issued 5.0 BB/9 in each of the past two seasons. And he issued 4.3 BB/9 in 2009. 

- His strikeout-to-walk ratio has dropped from 4.50 in 2006 and 3.47 in 2010 to 1.40 in 2011 and 1.92 in 2012. 

- Liriano's strike zone percentage has dropped from 48.0 percent in 2010 to 42.9 percent in 2012, and opposing batters are chasing fewer pitches (naturally).

If Liriano pitches as advertised, this appears to be a pretty fair deal in terms of market value. That said, his performance will dictate whether this deal is a good investment for a small market team like the Pirates. 

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Holiday Movie Countdown: No. 4

Michael: "A Christmas Story" I don’t need to stick my tongue to a flagpole or shoot my eye out to feel a lot like Ralphie just about every Christmas. 

Bill: "Christmas Vacation" As over-the-top as this movie is -- nuclear reserves called into action by one house worth of Christmas lights, supersonic sleds -- it's the subtlety that makes this move. "And why is the carpet all wet, Todd? "I don't KNOW, Margo!" Or a certain blessing. 

Bgsu78: "A Christmas Story" (Reeno edit: "Great minds...")

Hunter: "Scrooged" Bill Murray is a brilliant man. That is all. 

Wayward Eer: "White Christmas"