Arbitration series: Jeff Karstens

Monday, 26 November 2012 22:15

Written by Bill Brink

Jeff Karstens       

Age opening day 2013: 30

Arbitration year: Third

Acquired: Via trade along with Daniel McCutchen, Jose Tabata and Ross Ohlendorf from the Yankees in exchange for Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady.

Service time: 5 years, 132 days

2012 salary: $3.1 million (avoided arbitration)

Stats: 3.97 ERA, 5-4 record in 19 appearances, 15 starts, 902/3 innings pitched, 66/15 K/BB ratio, 1.5 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.15 WHIP

Karstens pitched well when healthy, but health was the exception rather than the rule this season. He made only 15 starts and went on the disabled list for two months after his third start of the season because of a shoulder injury.

In 12 starts between June 25, when he returned from the DL, and Aug. 31, Karstens went 5-3 with a 3.79 ERA, a 54/13 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a .661 OPS against. On Aug. 31, though, he left his start in the first inning because of a hip injury.

He returned in late September, but made four appearances out of the bullpen as manager Clint Hurdle gave Kyle McPherson and Jeff Locke a shot in the rotation.

Comp: Jonathan Sanchez, 2012. Sanchez avoided arbitration with the Royals and agreed to a one-year, $5.6 million contract in his final year of arbitration eligibility. This is not a direct comparison because Sanchez made $4.8 million in his second year of arbitration, $1.7 more than Karstens made this season, but the raise is instructive because Sanchez’s stats in 2011 were roughly similar to Karstens’ in 2012. Sanchez pitched 1011/3 innings in 2011 and had a 4.26 ERA 19 starts. He struck out 102 and walked 66.

Analysis: If Sanchez earned an $800,000 raise in his final year of eligibility, Karstens will likely earn a similar raise considering he performed better when healthy than Sanchez did. That brings his salary into the $3.8 million to $4 million range. Neal Huntington may not want to spend that much money on a pitcher who missed a large part of the season with two different injuries. Huntington sounded lukewarm at best about Karstens’ future in late September.

“As we do with every player in the organization, we're going to do a thorough analysis and explore the fit on the team going forward, explore the role and how he fits in the big picture," Huntington said near the end of the season regarding Karstens’ future. "Right now it's a little too early to talk about that publicly.”

Given Karstens’ injury problems in 2012 and the salary he will command, it appears possible that the Pirates will not tender Karstens arbitration. If they do tender him, they get an inexpensive starter who is effective when healthy, but roll the dice on his health.

-- Video courtesy of MLB.com.