Pitt-Villanova game prediction

Wednesday, 16 January 2013 17:05

Written by Ray Fittipaldo

Pitt-Villanova game prediction

(Season record: 1-3)

In this series that dates to 1960, only twice in the 63-game history between the two schools has a team won five consecutive games against the other. Pitt has a chance to do it again tonight at the Pavilion.

The Panthers did it once before, from 1986-88; Villanova did it from 1994-96.

Here’s what has to happen for it the Panthers to run their streak to five in the final scheduled game in series history: rebound, rebound and rebound.

It’s not that simple, but it is the single most important factor for the Panthers. Villanova plays almost exclusively man-to-man defense, and the Panthers have done better against man-to-man defenses as opposed to zone defense.

Villanova is 2-1 in Big East play, but the Wildcats are not a great offensive or defensive team. They are tied for last in the conference in field-goal percentage (40.8) and ninth in scoring offense (71.1 ppg).

The Wildcats are 14^th in the league in scoring defense (67 ppg) and 12^th in field goal percentage defense (40.4).

What Villanova does do well is rebound. The Wildcats are first in the Big East in rebounding margin (+9.7) in conference games. Pitt is 12^th (-3.7).

If Villanova gets offensive rebounds and put-backs it’s going to be a long night for the Panthers. If center Steven Adams and Talib Zanna control the boards the Panthers have a good chanced to steal a road win.

Call me skeptical, but until I see it from Adams and Zanna, I’m not going to believe they can get it done. That’s why I’m picking the home team.

Villanova 68, Pitt 65

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